Since late August, the domestic wheat market has been mainly stable, with prices in some regions rising by RMB 10-20/tonne; signs of picking up in flour sales have been revealed, and corporate orders have increased, and prices have also appeared at RMB 10-20/tonne. Followed by the increase.

Judging from the current market, most processing companies now report that the sales of flour has accelerated, and the operating rate of enterprises has increased from the previous period. As the weather turns cold and the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are approaching, the market demand will increase, and the enthusiasm of processing companies for purchasing wheat will increase.

As for the trend of late-stage market wheat prices, most of the people from all walks of life currently hold bullish expectations, mainly due to factors such as late-season climate, group consumption, and national policies that will promote the formation of the wheat market. As far as the author estimates, the market will begin to gather more bullish expectations, and the short-to-medium-term wheat market will remain steady, strong and strong. However, due to the abundant supply, especially the relevant national policies and regulations, market conditions are rapidly and rapidly "higher" or " The possibility of going low is still barely.

The price of wheat in the producing areas has risen slightly since the recent period. Affected by the recovery of market demand, the enthusiasm of purchasing wheat from milling companies in some parts of Huanghuai in northern China has increased. As the quality of wheat this year is higher than last year's Chen Mai, companies are still more inclined to purchase new wheat when prices are close.

At present, the price of first-class wheat flour mills in Jinan, Shandong Province is listed at 2080-2100 yuan/ton, and that of the first-class wheat flour mills in Texas is 2090-2100 yuan/ton; the first wheat flour mill in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, is listed at 2110-. 2120 yuan / ton; prices are up 10 yuan / ton. The listed price for first-class wheat flour mills in Zhengzhou, Henan province was RMB 1990-2000/ton, which was basically the same; the first-rate wheat flour mills in Xinxiang were listed at RMB 2000-2020/tonne, up RMB 10-20/ton.

Due to the strong demand for high-quality wheat from the milling companies, the price of high-quality wheat continued to rise steadily and slightly. At present, the price of 8901 high-quality wheat entering Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province is 2380-2400 yuan/ton, up by 20-40 yuan/ton; the price of Jinan 17 high-quality wheat import plant in Shandong Weifang District is 2240-2260 yuan/ton, up by 20-30 yuan/ Tons; Yumai 34, Henan Province, the quality of wheat into the factory price of 2120-2140 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton.

The signs of warming in flour sales have been revealed since late August. Sales have begun to pick up due to the gradual turning of the weather and the start of colleges and universities. Flour prices have risen slightly in the production and marketing areas.

The ex-factory prices of flour in parts of Huanghuai in North China have been raised. Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, a special powder factory price of 2620-2640 yuan / ton, Shandong Jinan, the ex-factory price of 2600-2620 yuan / ton, are raised 20 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, was 2580-2600 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price in Suzhou, Anhui Province, was 2,560-2,580 yuan/ton, both up 20-30 yuan/ton.

As the sales of flour gradually emerged from the “shadow” of light summer stage sales, coupled with the strong wheat prices in the producing areas and other reasons, the wholesale market price of flour in the sales area has recently risen steadily. In Beijing Yuquan Road Market, the wholesale profits of Wudeli Rich Powder, Jinmai Rich and Strong Powder, and Jiajia Rich and Rich Powder were all up by RMB 1 per bag (50 pounds) from the previous month. Jiangsu Nanjing Xiaguan Cereals and Oils Wholesale Market, a special flour wholesale price rose 40 yuan/ton from the previous period.

The sale of wheat auctions gradually recovered. On August 25th, the minimum purchase price of wheat plans to put a total of 4,504,700 tons of wheat, the actual turnover of 215,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons over the week, the turnover rate increased by 2 percentage points. Affected by the gradual recovery of market procurement demand, the minimum purchase price wheat turnover rate has maintained a two-week rebound, and the previous six consecutive weeks of decline has been reversed.

Analysis of the reasons: First, the recent increase in flour sales, and prices gradually warmer and stronger, processing companies to increase the enthusiasm of procurement of wheat. Second, the domestic aquaculture industry has obviously recovered and feed demand has gradually increased. The increase in demand for wheat, one of the feeds, has also led to an increase in auction volume. Third, regional demand has improved, and wheat sales in the warehouse have become more prosperous. On August 25th auction, all wheat in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, and Shanxi were transferred, and this part accounted for nearly 30% of the total transaction volume.

According to the analysis of relevant market participants, the level of wheat trading in the preliminary trade and warehousing enterprises involved in the minimum acquisition price is higher than that of processing enterprises. The procurement of processing enterprises is mostly purchased from traders or reserve rotations. This circulation pattern is reflected in the lighter period of the market. Obviously, but with the advent of the consumption season, processing companies will gradually increase the share of wheat purchased from the market transactions due to the increase in production volume.

According to statistics from the State Grain Administration Bureau, according to statistics from the State Grain Bureau, as of August 15th, the reserve grain storage site of China Grain Reserves has acquired a total of 22,747,000 tons of wheat at the lowest purchase price in Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Henan and Hubei provinces. 62% of grain enterprises' acquisitions decreased by 15.629 million tons compared with the same period of last year, which was far below the number of pre-market purchases in previous years. It can be expected that, under the current market conditions, it will be very difficult for acquisitions to increase significantly until the end of the procurement period. This may be the year since the implementation of the wheat procurement policy.

From the perspective of the state's lowest purchase price of wheat stocks, although the stock of Chenmai in 2009 was still relatively large, its distribution was not balanced. The stocks in Jiangsu and Anhui declined rapidly as compared with the same period of last year, and the stock in Hubei was also nearly finished. This year's acquisition of new wheat is also unbalanced. In Jiangsu this year, the purchase price of the city was only 650,000 tons, which was a decrease of 3.5 million tons compared with the same period of last year; Hebei has not initiated the acceptance of the city this year. The unbalanced distribution of the lowest purchase price of wheat in the region, and the impact of fluctuations in the supply and demand of the market should be paid attention to earlier.

Late wheat imports may slow down customs data, showing that China imported 132,000 tons of wheat in July, an increase of 47,000 tons, a decrease of 58,000 tons from the previous month; cumulative imports from January to July were 1,106,800 tons, which has exceeded the cumulative total of 2009. Import quantity.

Affected by the recent rise in international wheat prices, the current international market wheat has been significantly higher than domestic wheat prices. On August 26th, the US September shipment of soft winter wheat No. 2 on the Chinese port CNF quoted at 326 US dollars / ton, after the arrival of duty after the price of 2595 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction price of red wheat produced in Xiamen, Fujian, is 2,140 yuan/ton, which is 455 yuan/ton lower than that of the US wheat.

From the perspective of China's wheat supply and demand pattern in recent years, imported wheat has changed from the “filling the domestic demand gap” to the “processing industry supplement” in the past. Under the double background of “international high wheat price fluctuations” and “preliminarily traded countries that have not yet entered the circulation channels in a large number of countries, the country has not yet entered circulation channels,” it is expected that the quantity and speed of wheat imports in the later period will slow down.

In the later period, the price of wheat is expected to grow steadily and strong. According to previous years' experience, most of the wheat market in September-October each year has a wave of rising prices in the autumn. From the perspective of this year's market, most of the people from all walks of life have bullish expectations. Under this expectation, the author believes that short-to-medium-term wheat may maintain a slight upward trend, but there is not much room for it to rise.

First, since mid-August, signs of recovery in flour sales have gradually surfaced. For processing companies, as the weather turns cooler, the demand for flour is gradually improving. The recovery in market sales and price increase will stimulate processing companies to increase demand for wheat. At the same time, due to the gradual increase in feed demand, the firm high feed corn prices will also drive the feed wheat market, which will become a driving force for the warming of the wheat market. The current market survey also fully shows that most of the surveyed processing companies believe that the demand for wheat in the near future will continue to increase.

Second, when the National Development and Reform Commission recently reported to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on food security, the country will continue to steadily raise the minimum purchase price and guide the market price of grain to a reasonable level. In previous years, most countries released the lowest purchase price policy in the following year in mid-October, but the market conditions often started slowly in September. In addition, the purchase price of new wheat in 2010 is higher, plus the actual price of related expenses is higher than the current auction floor price. In accordance with the principle of “sale price”, the minimum bid price before and after the listing price of wheat this year may increase.

Third, since 2004, China's wheat production has increased for six consecutive years, and there is sufficient domestic wheat stock. In addition, the new season wheat will continue to increase in output, and domestic wheat will continue to show a pattern of loose supply and demand. The relevant national department forecast in August that the new supply of domestic wheat in 2010/11 was 11.610 million tons, the total consumption was 107.49 million tons, and the balance of wheat was 8.6 million tons. Although various market players currently hold bullish expectations for the future market, due to strong national market regulations, there are many methods, especially the gradual expansion of wheat supply will weaken the market's bullish expectations to a greater extent, and short-to-medium-term wheat prices are still not Great fluctuations in conditions.